Show pageOld revisionsBacklinksBack to top This page is read only. You can view the source, but not change it. Ask your administrator if you think this is wrong. ====== T-12 (Trailing Twelve Months) ====== ===== The 30-Second Summary ===== * **The Bottom Line:** **T-12 financials give you the most up-to-date, full-year picture of a company's performance, cutting through the noise of outdated annual reports and seasonal quirks.** * **Key Takeaways:** * **What it is:** A summary of a company's financial data (like revenue, earnings, or cash flow) over the most recent 12-month period, regardless of its official fiscal year-end. * **Why it matters:** It provides a far more current and relevant view of a business's health than the last [[annual_report]], which can be many months old. This is crucial for assessing [[business_fundamentals|current business fundamentals]]. * **How to use it:** Use T-12 figures to calculate valuation ratios, like the [[price_to_earnings_ratio|P/E ratio]], to get a real-time assessment of whether a stock is cheap or expensive. ===== What is T-12 (Trailing Twelve Months)? A Plain English Definition ===== Imagine you're driving on a long road trip. To understand your journey, you could look at the last major milestone you passed—the "Year-End City" sign. That's your annual report. It's an accurate, audited summary of a big chunk of your journey. But if you passed that sign nine months ago, it tells you very little about the winding roads, steep hills, or smooth straightaways you've encountered since. This is where the Trailing Twelve Months, or T-12, comes in. Think of T-12 as looking in your car's rearview mirror to see the last 50 miles you just drove. It's the most recent, relevant picture of your journey. It doesn't matter when you started your trip (the fiscal year); what matters is the path you've just covered. In financial terms, T-12 is a rolling 12-month summary of a company's performance. It’s calculated by taking the results of the four most recent financial quarters and adding them together. This simple act creates a powerful, up-to-date "annual" snapshot. For example, if a company has just released its second-quarter (Q2) earnings in July, its T-12 revenue would be the sum of its revenue from Q2 of the current year, Q1 of the current year, and Q4 and Q3 of the //previous// year. As each new quarter is reported, the oldest quarter in the T-12 calculation is dropped, and the new one is added. This keeps the view fresh and constantly rolling forward. It’s the antidote to stale data. For an investor, relying solely on a year-old annual report is like a doctor trying to diagnose a patient using medical charts from their last check-up a year ago. The T-12 is the doctor taking your vitals //right now//. > //"Know what you own, and know why you own it." - Peter Lynch// This famous advice from Peter Lynch is at the heart of intelligent investing. The T-12 financial statement is a critical tool that helps you know what you own **today**, not what the company looked like almost a year ago. It allows you to base your decisions on the most current reality of the business. ===== Why It Matters to a Value Investor ===== For a value investor, the T-12 isn't just another piece of data; it's a vital lens for seeing a business with clarity and prudence. The philosophy of value investing, championed by figures like Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett, is about buying wonderful businesses at a fair price. The T-12 is indispensable in determining both "wonderful" and "fair" in real-time. Here’s why it's a cornerstone of the value investor's toolkit: * **Timeliness Over Stale News:** Value investors are business analysts, not market speculators. They care about the underlying operational reality of a company. An annual report released in March for a fiscal year that ended the previous December is already three months out of date. By the time November rolls around, that data is nearly a year old. A lot can happen in a year—a new competitor can emerge, a product can take off, or a recession can hit. T-12 provides the most current full-year data set available, ensuring your analysis is grounded in recent performance, not ancient history. * **Smoothing Out Misleading Seasonality:** A single quarterly report can be dangerously deceptive. A toy company's fourth quarter will always look spectacular due to holiday sales, while its first quarter will likely look bleak. Judging the company on either quarter alone would lead to a wildly inaccurate conclusion. Because T-12 always includes a full cycle of four quarters, it smooths out these seasonal bumps and valleys. This gives you a much clearer picture of the company's true, underlying [[normalized_earnings|normalized earning power]], which is the bedrock for calculating its [[intrinsic_value]]. * **A More Accurate [[margin_of_safety|Margin of Safety]]:** The margin of safety—buying a stock for significantly less than its intrinsic value—is the central principle of value investing. To calculate that value, you need reliable earnings data. If a company's earnings have declined 20% over the last nine months, but you're still using the old annual report's earnings per share (EPS) to calculate the P/E ratio, the stock will appear deceptively cheap. You'll think you have a wide margin of safety when, in reality, you have none. Using T-12 EPS provides a P/E ratio that reflects the company's //current// earnings power, giving you a much more honest assessment of the price you're paying and the real margin of safety you're getting. * **Early Detection of Trends:** Value investors are long-term thinkers, but they aren't blind to changing business dynamics. By tracking a company's T-12 revenue and profit growth over several quarters, you can spot important inflections points long before they are confirmed in an annual report. Is revenue growth accelerating? Are profit margins starting to erode? These are critical questions that T-12 data can help answer, allowing you to either avoid a deteriorating business or identify a strengthening one ahead of the crowd. In essence, T-12 financials help a value investor see the business as it is operating //now//, providing the clear, stable, and current data needed to make rational, long-term decisions based on value, not on noise. ===== How to Calculate and Interpret T-12 (Trailing Twelve Months) ===== While most financial data providers like Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, or your brokerage platform will calculate T-12 (or "TTM") figures for you, understanding how the sausage is made is crucial for any serious investor. It demystifies the number and helps you spot potential issues. === The Formula === The logic is simple: you want to stitch together the four most recent quarters. The easiest way to do this is by starting with the last complete fiscal year and then updating it with the new quarters. The most common formula is: `T-12 Data = Most Recent Full Fiscal Year's Data + Current Year-to-Date (YTD) Data - Previous Year's Corresponding YTD Data` Let's make this crystal clear with a step-by-step example. Imagine it's **August 2024**, and "Steady Brew Coffee Co." has just reported its Q2 2024 results. We want to calculate its T-12 Revenue. * **Step 1: Find the last full Fiscal Year (FY) data.** * Steady Brew's FY 2023 Revenue was **$1,000 million**. * **Step 2: Find the current Year-to-Date (YTD) data.** * This is the data from the quarters reported so far this year. * Q1 2024 Revenue: $280 million * Q2 2024 Revenue: $300 million * Current YTD Revenue = $280 + $300 = **$580 million**. * **Step 3: Find the corresponding YTD data from the //previous// year.** * We need to find the revenue from the same period one year ago (Q1 and Q2 of 2023). * Q1 2023 Revenue: $250 million * Q2 2023 Revenue: $260 million * Previous Year's Corresponding YTD Revenue = $250 + $260 = **$510 million**. * **Step 4: Plug the numbers into the formula.** * T-12 Revenue = $1,000 million (FY 2023) + $580 million (Current YTD) - $510 million (Previous YTD) * T-12 Revenue = **$1,070 million** You've successfully calculated the revenue for the four most recent quarters: Q3 2023, Q4 2023, Q1 2024, and Q2 2024. === Interpreting the Result === The number itself—$1,070 million—is just a starting point. The real insight comes from context. * **Compare Against the Past:** The most powerful use of T-12 is for trend analysis. How does this T-12 revenue of $1,070 million compare to the full FY 2023 revenue of $1,000 million? It shows the company is still growing at a healthy 7% clip ($1070 / $1000 - 1). You can also compare it to the T-12 figure from a quarter ago to see if that growth is accelerating or decelerating. * **Investigate the "Why":** A T-12 figure is a what, not a why. If you see T-12 net income jump dramatically, you must dig into the [[quarterly_report|quarterly reports]] that make up the number. Was this jump due to strong, sustainable growth in the core business? Or was it due to a one-time event, like the sale of a factory or a legal settlement? A value investor is only interested in the former. This is a core part of assessing the [[quality_of_earnings]]. * **Use it for Better Ratios:** This is the T-12's killer app. Let's say Steady Brew's current market capitalization is $10,700 million. * Using the old FY 2023 revenue of $1,000 million gives you a Price/Sales ratio of 10.7x. * Using the up-to-date T-12 revenue of $1,070 million gives you a Price/Sales ratio of 10.0x. * In this case, the stock is actually cheaper than it first appears. The opposite can often be true for a struggling company. The T-12 gives you the most accurate valuation multiple, which is critical for making an informed investment decision. ===== A Practical Example ===== To see the T-12 in action, let's analyze two hypothetical companies in mid-2024. We have their full 2023 annual reports and their reports for the first two quarters of 2024. * **Steady Brew Coffee Co.:** A mature, stable company known for its predictable, moderate growth. * **Cyclone Software Inc.:** A fast-growing tech company that has been investing heavily and has just started to turn a corner on profitability. An investor looking only at the 2023 annual reports would see one story. An investor using T-12 data sees a completely different, and more accurate, one. ^ **Financial Metric** ^ **Steady Brew (FY 2023)** ^ **Steady Brew (T-12 as of Q2 2024)** ^ **Cyclone Software (FY 2023)** ^ **Cyclone Software (T-12 as of Q2 2024)** ^ | Revenue | $1,000 million | $1,070 million | $200 million | $280 million | | Net Income | $100 million | $95 million | -$20 million (Loss) | $15 million (Profit) | | Earnings Per Share (EPS) | $1.00 | $0.95 | -$0.20 (Loss) | $0.15 (Profit) | | Current Stock Price | $19.00 | $19.00 | $7.50 | $7.50 | | P/E Ratio | **19.0x** | **20.0x** | **N/A (Loss)** | **50.0x** | **Analysis:** * **Steady Brew Coffee Co.:** * Looking at the 2023 report, an investor sees a solid company with a P/E of 19. It seems reasonably priced. * However, the T-12 data reveals a subtle but important trend. While revenue is still growing, net income and EPS have actually //declined// slightly in the most recent 12-month period. Its T-12 P/E ratio is now 20.0x. This doesn't mean it's a bad investment, but it signals that its profitability is facing some headwinds. The T-12 forces the investor to ask: "Why are margins compressing? Is this a temporary issue or the start of a long-term problem?" * **Cyclone Software Inc.:** * The 2023 annual report paints a grim picture: the company is losing money. Many conservative investors would stop their analysis right there. The P/E ratio is not even applicable. * The T-12 data tells a dramatically different story of a business at an inflection point. Not only has revenue growth accelerated significantly (from a $200M run-rate to a $280M run-rate), but the company has swung from a loss to a meaningful profit. It now has a positive T-12 EPS and a P/E ratio of 50. While a P/E of 50 might seem high, the T-12 reveals a dynamic, rapidly improving business that the annual report completely misses. This example shows how T-12 data provides a more dynamic and forward-looking (though still historical) view, helping investors understand the //trajectory// of a business, which is often more important than its static position a year ago. ===== Advantages and Limitations ===== Like any tool, the T-12 is powerful when used correctly and misleading when its limitations are ignored. ==== Strengths ==== * **Timeliness:** Its primary advantage. It offers the most current full-year perspective, preventing decisions based on outdated information. * **Reduces Seasonal Distortion:** It provides a stable, full-cycle view of a business by always including four quarters, which is far superior to analyzing a single, volatile quarter. * **Better for Valuation:** Using T-12 figures for metrics like the P/E, P/S, or EV/EBITDA ratios provides a much more accurate snapshot of a company's current valuation, which is essential for calculating a reliable [[margin_of_safety]]. * **Highlights Trends:** Comparing sequential T-12 periods is an excellent way to spot acceleration or deceleration in a company's growth and profitability. ==== Weaknesses & Common Pitfalls ==== * **Distorted by One-Off Events:** A large, non-recurring item (like a major asset sale, a large restructuring charge, or a legal settlement) in one of the recent quarters can significantly skew the T-12 numbers, making the company look much better or worse than it actually is. **Rule #1 for investors:** Always investigate the source of major changes in T-12 data. * **It's Still Backward-Looking:** T-12 shows you the road you've just traveled, not the road ahead. It is not a forecast. A company's business model could be disrupted tomorrow, and the T-12 financials would offer no warning. It's a snapshot of the recent past, not a crystal ball for the future. * **Not Fully Audited:** While the data comes from official company filings, the specific T-12 compilation itself isn't audited with the same rigor as the final annual report. There's a small but non-zero risk of data aggregation errors, especially if you calculate it manually. * **Can Lag in Fast-Changing Situations:** For a company undergoing an extremely rapid turnaround or collapse, even a T-12 figure can be too slow. In such rare cases, investors may need to focus even more intensely on the most recent quarter's results and management guidance. ===== Related Concepts ===== * [[annual_report]]: The audited, comprehensive yearly report that T-12 data helps to update. * [[quarterly_report]]: The building blocks used to calculate the T-12 figures. * [[price_to_earnings_ratio]]: A key valuation metric that is most accurately calculated using T-12 earnings. * [[intrinsic_value]]: The true underlying worth of a business, which T-12 data helps an investor to estimate more accurately. * [[margin_of_safety]]: The buffer between a stock's price and its intrinsic value; T-12 data ensures this buffer is calculated with current information. * [[normalized_earnings]]: The concept of a business's true, sustainable earning power over a cycle, which T-12 helps to approximate by smoothing seasonality. * [[business_fundamentals]]: The core operational and financial health of a company that T-12 data helps illuminate.