Show pageOld revisionsBacklinksBack to top This page is read only. You can view the source, but not change it. Ask your administrator if you think this is wrong. ====== Clarksons Research ====== Clarksons Research is the data and intelligence arm of [[Clarksons PLC]], the world's largest shipbroker. Think of it as the ultimate authority and the most trusted source for information on anything that floats and carries cargo. For over 50 years, it has been meticulously collecting, verifying, and analyzing a vast sea of data on the global shipping and offshore markets. This includes everything from the number of ships being built (the [[orderbook]]) and scrapped, to the daily earnings of different vessel types, to the intricate patterns of global trade. For investors trying to understand the notoriously cyclical shipping industry, Clarksons Research provides the charts and compass needed to navigate. Their data offers a clear, objective view of the fundamental balance between the supply of ships and the demand for their services, which is the primary driver of profitability in the maritime world. Without this kind of high-quality data, investing in shipping would be little more than a speculative gamble. ===== Why Clarksons Research Matters to a Value Investor ===== The core philosophy of [[value investing]] is to buy good businesses at a fair price. The shipping industry, with its massive, expensive assets (ships) and wild swings from boom to bust, often serves up incredible opportunities to do just that—if you know what you’re looking for. This is where Clarksons Research becomes an indispensable tool. Investing in a cyclical industry is all about understanding where you are in the cycle. Buying a fleet of tankers when [[freight rates]] are at a record high and a flood of new ships are about to be delivered is a recipe for disaster. Conversely, buying that same fleet when the market is in a deep trough, older ships are being scrapped, and few new ones are being built can lead to spectacular returns. Clarksons provides the hard data that helps an investor make these critical judgments. By tracking key metrics, a diligent investor can form an educated opinion on whether the industry's future prospects are improving or deteriorating. It helps to replace emotional, headline-driven decisions with a rational, evidence-based approach—the very bedrock of value investing. Attempting to invest in shipping without consulting Clarksons’ data is like a sea captain setting sail into a storm without a weather forecast. ===== Key Data Points to Watch ===== While the full suite of Clarksons' data is expensive, many of their key indices and summary points are widely reported in the financial press and in shipping companies' own investor presentations. Here are a few of the most important ones to keep an eye on. ==== The ClarkSea Index ==== This is the big one. The ClarkSea Index is a weighted average of the daily earnings for the main types of commercial ships, including tankers, bulk carriers, container ships, and gas carriers. It's published weekly and serves as a powerful barometer for the overall health and profitability of the global shipping market. * **What it tells you:** A rising index means the shipping industry's collective earnings are improving, while a falling index signals distress. By tracking its trend over time, you can get a quick, high-level view of the industry's pulse. A value investor might become interested when the index has been bumping along a historical low for a while, suggesting pessimism is at its peak. ==== Supply Side: The Orderbook ==== The orderbook represents the total number of new ships that have been ordered from shipyards but have not yet been delivered. Clarksons usually presents this as a percentage of the existing fleet. * **What it tells you:** This is a crucial //forward-looking// indicator for ship supply. A small orderbook (e.g., below 10% of the existing fleet) is very bullish for future freight rates, as it means few new ships will be entering the market to compete for cargo. Conversely, a massive orderbook is a red flag, signaling a potential glut of ships in the coming years that could crush profitability. ==== Demand Side: Tonne-Mile Demand ==== This metric is a more sophisticated way to measure the demand for shipping. Instead of just looking at the volume of cargo moved (tonnes), it multiplies that volume by the distance it travels (miles). * **What it tells you:** [[Tonne-mile demand]] captures crucial changes in global trade patterns. For example, if a European country stops importing oil from a nearby neighbor and starts sourcing it from halfway across the world, the volume (tonnes) might be the same, but the tonne-miles will skyrocket, increasing the demand for ships. Geopolitical events often cause these shifts, making tonne-mile demand a more accurate gauge than simple trade volume. ===== A Word of Caution ===== While Clarksons Research provides an unparalleled quantitative picture of the shipping industry, it's not a crystal ball. * **Data is a Tool, Not an Answer:** The data tells you //what// is happening, but it doesn't always tell you //why// or //what will happen next//. It must be combined with a broader understanding of macroeconomics, geopolitics, and changing regulations, such as new environmental rules from the [[International Maritime Organization]] (IMO) that can render older ships obsolete. * **Do Your Own Work:** The data is a starting point, not a substitute for rigorous [[fundamental analysis]]. An investor still needs to analyze the balance sheets, income statements, management quality, and capital allocation strategy of individual shipping companies before making an investment. A rising tide may lift all boats, but the leaky ones will still sink.