======Support and Resistance======
Support and Resistance are core concepts in [[technical analysis]], representing price levels on a chart that a stock has difficulty falling below or rising above. Think of them as a psychological floor and ceiling for a stock's price. **Support** is the price level where a downtrend is expected to pause or reverse, driven by a concentration of demand. It's the "floor" that holds the price up. Conversely, **Resistance** is the price level where an uptrend tends to stall, hit by an overwhelming amount of supply. It's the "ceiling" that caps the price. These levels are not magical barriers but rather visual representations of supply and demand dynamics. Traders and algorithms alike watch these key levels, which reinforces their importance. When a stock approaches support, buyers see a bargain and step in; when it nears resistance, sellers see an opportunity to cash out, creating these predictable battlegrounds.
===== The Psychology Behind the Lines =====
Why do these levels even exist? It's all about human emotion—specifically, regret and relief. Imagine a stock drops to $40 and then bounces back to $50. The investors who wanted to buy at $40 but hesitated are now kicking themselves. If the price ever returns to $40, they are psychologically primed to buy, creating a wave of demand that forms the support level.
The same works in reverse for resistance. If a stock hits $60 and falls back, shareholders who regret not selling at the peak promise themselves they'll sell if it ever gets back to $60. This creates a wall of supply, forming the resistance level. These lines are simply the collective memory of the market made visible on a chart.
===== How to Spot Support and Resistance =====
Identifying these levels is more art than science, but there are common methods analysts use. The more times a level has been tested (i.e., the price has touched it and reversed), the more significant it is considered.
  * **Previous Highs and Lows:** The most basic method. A significant past peak is a natural candidate for future resistance, and a major past trough is a likely spot for support.
  * **Trendlines:** By connecting two or more low points in an uptrend, you create a support trendline. By connecting two or more high points in a downtrend, you create a resistance trendline.
  * **[[Moving Averages]]:** Key moving averages, like the popular 50-day or 200-day, often act as dynamic support or resistance. A stock in a healthy uptrend will often find support and "bounce" off its 50-day moving average.
  * **Round Numbers:** Don't underestimate the power of psychology! Prices like $50, $100, or $1000 often act as informal support or resistance levels simply because people tend to place their buy and sell orders at these neat, memorable figures.
===== The Role Reversal Principle =====
Here's where it gets really interesting. What was once the floor can become the new ceiling, and vice-versa.
When a price decisively breaks //below// a support level, that level often transforms into a new resistance level. Why? The buyers who bought at the old support level are now sitting on a loss. If the price manages to climb back to their entry point, many will sell just to break even. This wave of selling creates a new supply ceiling where the floor used to be.
The opposite is also true. When a stock smashes //through// a resistance level, it often becomes the new support floor. This "role reversal" is a powerful concept for understanding shifting market sentiment.
===== A Value Investor's Perspective =====
Let's be clear: [[value investing]] and technical analysis are often seen as two different worlds. A true value investor, following in the footsteps of [[Warren Buffett]], makes decisions based on a company's [[fundamental analysis]]—its earnings, debt, and management quality—not squiggly lines on a chart. The goal is to buy a great business at a fair price, based on its [[intrinsic value]].
So, is there any room for support and resistance in a value investor's toolkit? Perhaps, but only as a secondary consideration for timing an entry. If you've already done your homework and identified a wonderful company that is selling for less than it's worth, noticing that its stock price is approaching a strong, long-term support level could enhance your [[margin of safety]]. It might suggest a point where selling pressure is likely to ease, offering an attractive entry point.
However, **never** buy a stock just because it's at a support level. The fundamentals of the business must always come first. A falling stock can easily crash through a support "floor" if the company itself is crumbling.